India’s ‘new normal’ deconstructed – The Hindu

On April 24, addressing a public gathering in Bihar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the earth….” Known to speak in Hindi to domestic audiences, it was noteworthy that the Prime Minister switched to English to say these lines. Clearly, the Prime Minister intended the message to be heard not only in Pakistan but across global capitals in an unambiguous manner that it would be firm in its resolve to take action against the particularly heinous terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22.

On the night of May 6-7, a fortnight after the Pahalgam attack, India responded with the launch of ‘Operation Sindoor’, striking nine different terrorist targets in Pakistan that housed United Nations proscribed entities such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and the Hizbul Mujahiddin (HIM). Five of these were in Pakistan Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (POJK), while four locations were in Pakistan’s heartland, Punjab province. On May 7, India clarified that its response was “focused”, “measured” and “non-escalatory” and that Pakistani military establishments had not been targeted. However, any attack on military targets in India would invite a suitable response.

In subsequent days, in response to Pakistan’s escalation, India foiled drone and missile attacks and delivered a fitting response to intense artillery shelling from Pakistani positions. As Pakistan escalated the attacks, India responded with precision strikes on Pakistan’s air defence systems. On May 10, India targeted 11 Pakistani military bases across the length of the country from Skardu in the north to Bholari and Malir in southern Pakistan. Within hours of these strikes, Pakistan interceded with a “ceasefire” plea that India acceded to.

A change from the traditional response

On May 12, addressing the nation, the Prime Minister laid down India’s new doctrine to fight terrorism. The message also irrevocably underlined a ‘new normal’ in India-Pakistan relations. To understand this ‘new normal’, one has to recall the traditional Indian response to major terrorist attacks. India’s toolkit consisted of halting dialogue, suspending people-to-people contacts, and trying to sensitise the international community of Pakistan’s use of terrorism as an instrument of state policy towards India and its aim to bleed India with a thousand cuts. Influential countries paid little heed to India’s troubles and preferred to deal with Pakistan for their own benefit. Responding to Pakistan’s rhetoric on the threat of nuclear escalation — a policy Pakistan seemed to have perfected following every terrorist attack — the international community would immediately pressure India to show restraint. India itself would be hesitant and never probing deep enough to call Pakistan’s nuclear bluff.

A distinct change in the Indian approach became apparent after the terrorist attack in 2016, on the army camp in Uri; India launched cross-Line of Control (LoC) surgical strikes to hit terrorist camps in POJK. Pakistan should have taken heed of this but unfortunately it did not. Following the Pulwama attack in February 2019, India retaliated with a strike on terrorist group JeM’s training camp in Balakot, Pakistan. This was another message — that India would raise the costs for Pakistan if it targeted India. Pakistan did heed this, but not for long.

A definite enunciation

The two previous instances cited above are important as they gave insights into, what many may consider, a brand new strategy. I would like to think that the Prime Minister’s message of a ‘new normal’ in India-Pakistan relations has been evolving for a while but has now been crystallised and enunciated in no uncertain terms for Pakistan and the international community to understand.

For one, the Prime Minister has made it clear that no terrorist act in India will go unpunished. There will be a cost for Pakistan to bear if it persists in using terrorism as an instrument of state policy against India. The cost inflicted will be on India’s terms and conditions — no place in Pakistan will be treated as sacrosanct and left untouched. Terrorists will be pursued to their safe hideouts and targeted.

For another, India’s response to terrorism emanating from Pakistan will not be inhibited or circumscribed by Pakistan’s calls to the international community to pressure India given the danger of escalation to nuclear exchanges. During ‘Operation Sindoor’, the targets were carefully chosen and hit with precision. Satellite imagery has corroborated that there was little to zero collateral damage. The Prime Minister has called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff. His carefully calibrated actions and clear strategic direction have delinked the conventional escalation ladder from the nuclear ladder.

Third, India will not let Pakistan take cover under the excuse that “non state” or “third parties” beyond Pakistani state control were responsible for a terrorist strike against India. In the past, this has allowed Pakistan to get away with impunity. No longer will India allow Pakistan to draw this distinction between the Pakistani state and terrorist groups operating from its soil. As long as terrorists are nurtured on Pakistani soil, India will hold Pakistan’s rulers as much responsible for attacks against India as the terrorists they support.

In his address on May 12, the Prime Minister highlighted the fact that senior officers of the Pakistani armed forces were present in uniform at funerals of terrorists killed in the Indian strike in Muridke. Footage broadcast by Pakistani television channels showed coffins of the dead draped in the Pakistani national flag — an undisputable linkage between the Pakistani state and the terrorists. The fact that the Pakistani state and its military viewed India’s action against terrorist training camps as attacks on Pakistan itself, proves the point India has been making ad nauseam — the Pakistani state supports terrorists to fight a proxy war against India.

The Pakistan Army’s presence at the funeral of the terrorists also reinforces the point that valuable tax-payer money and resources from international institutions, borrowed in times of economic crises, goes toward building terrorist training infrastructure. Another element of the ‘new normal’ is that India will not gather and furnish evidence of terrorist attacks in India to Pakistan and the international community. The burden of proof will not lie with India — as long as India has credible evidence of attacks being planned from Pakistani soil, it will strike at the source of terrorism.

The defence strategy

The ‘new normal’ also encompasses the change in war-fighting strategy. Enhanced Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, precision weaponry, and drones and loitering munitions have defined how India retaliated to the terrorist attack from Pakistan. Going forward, the strategies that India employs to deter terrorism emanating from Pakistan will have a new-age component to it — allowing precise targeting to minimise collateral damage. ‘Made in India’ weapons have proven themselves during ‘Operation Sindoor’. There must be much greater synergy and cooperation between industry and the armed forces to enable industry to deliver on the needs of the forces.

From this comes the next point. India’s war against terrorism is its own. We need to depend on ourselves to defeat this scourge; support from outside will wax and wane depending on the global situation. We have to steel ourselves to take on this challenge as a nation, united.

For all those advocating better trade, dialogue and people-to-people relations to solve the problems between India and Pakistan, the message is clear.

India’s cooperation on matters of water sharing and trade will be subject to Pakistan abjuring terrorism. Sharing of river water and terrorism cannot go together, just like trade cannot flourish in an environment where terrorism is raising threats. Any dialogue will rest upon Pakistan abjuring terrorism against India and the return of POJK to India. Nothing else. This too, is a key element of the ‘new normal’.

The “New India”, under the Prime Minister, is free from self-doubt and inhibitions. The enunciation of a ‘new normal’ in strategy indicates a paradigm shift in how India deals with terrorism, and is a message to both Pakistan and the world. India will not compromise on its unity and security and will respond to terrorism as it deems fit, with or without global support.

The Prime Minister’s resolute leadership at this difficult time conveys another unequivocal message. India will take its rightful place in a multipolar, and sometimes, anarchic world order. It has what it takes to get there.

Harsh V. Shringla is a former Foreign Secretary and India’s Ambassador to the United States, Bangladesh and Thailand

Leave a Comment