U.S. President Donald Trump has made a U-turn on Ukraine, shifting from his campaign pledge to end the war within 24 hours of taking office to promising to send more weapons to Ukraine and threatening to impose “severe tariffs” on Russia and its trading partners if the crisis is not resolved in 50 days. The shift reflects the complex realities on the ground. Ukraine, which has lost more than 20% of its territories, including its Sea of Azov coastline, to Russia since 2014, agreed to a ceasefire, under pressure from the Trump administration, based on the current frontline. Russia had initially responded to Mr. Trump’s peace push. It agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea, and halted attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for 30 days. Moscow also declared brief ceasefires and sent negotiators to Istanbul for talks with Kyiv on June 2, despite a drone strike by Ukraine deep inside Russia, targeting its bombers. But after the U.S. joined Israel to bomb Iran, despite Tehran’s nuclear talks with Washington, Russia accelerated attacks on Ukraine with drone attacks and troop advances in the Dnipropetrovsk region. In a call with Mr. Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would not back down from his goals in Ukraine. Caught between an intransigent Moscow and pressure from his allies, Mr. Trump seems to have decided to change course.
Nevertheless, Mr. Trump has ruled out giving Ukraine long-range offensive weapons. The plan is to send defensive weapons, including Patriot systems and ammunition to Ukraine through NATO allies. While Patriots could be effective in shielding Ukraine’s skies from Russian missile strikes, they are unlikely to alter the balance in the battlefield. And, the U.S.’s ability to hurt Russia through direct tariffs is limited as bilateral trade stood at just $3 billion in 2024. But if Mr. Trump opts for secondary tariffs, the impact would extend to other countries, including India, China, and Brazil. Since the start of the Ukraine war, the U.S. and Europe have imposed multiple layers of sanctions on Russia, which have failed to impact the Kremlin’s war policies. By threatening to penalise third countries for Russia’s actions, Mr. Trump is doubling down on a failed policy, and also jeopardising the energy security of countries such as India, an American partner. Mr. Trump must realise that he cannot resolve global conflicts through imperial-style ultimatums and threats. Instead, sustained diplomacy with Moscow and Kyiv is essential. Russia must come down from its maximalist demands, and Ukraine’s security concerns should be addressed. His focus should be on finding a middle ground between the Russian and Ukrainian positions to achieve a durable peace.
Published – July 18, 2025 12:10 am IST