New direction: On the German poll results, Russia relations

When Germans went to vote on Sunday (February 23, 2025), in one of the most consequential elections in the country’s post-reunification history, there was little doubt about the outcome. The Olaf Scholz-led three-party coalition had collapsed months earlier and his centrist Social Democratic Party (SPD) was hugely unpopular. Germany, once hailed as a model country, was in its third year of economic contraction and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), with neo-Nazi roots, was surging ahead with its anti-establishment and anti-immigrant campaign. In the results, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, Christian Social Union, led by Friedrich Merz, emerged as the largest bloc, with 28.5% votes, while the AfD doubled its vote share to 20.8%. The Social Democrats got a 16.1% share, one of its worst performances since the 19th century, while the Greens won 11.6%. The left-wing Die Linke saw rising popularity, with 8.8% of the vote. Mr. Merz had asked voters for a strong mandate to fix Germany’s problems. While the CDU’s performance is weaker than expected, its strong lead puts it on the path toward power. He will now kick off a complicated process of coalition talks.

Mr. Merz has already ruled out any alliance with the AfD, which would be allocated 152 seats. In the 630-member Bundestag, a coalition needs at least 316 seats to form a government. So, it is likely that Mr. Merz, whose bloc has 208 seats, would form a two-party coalition government with the Social Democrats, with its 120 seats. But government formation would be the least of his challenges. He must reboot a contracting economy, which has barely grown since the pre-COVID years, tackle the immigration problem, which was exploited by the far-right, and formulate foreign policy that addresses both the Ukraine war and Europe’s security challenges. As Germany joined western allies in imposing sanctions on Russia, it effectively lost access to cheap Russian gas. The country is today grappling with a deep recession and deindustrialisation. And as the crisis deepened, the German elites’ bid to weaken the AfD through a political ‘firewall’ ceased working. But Mr. Merz has the advantage of leading a new government on a new mandate. He should look at the U.S. reset with Russia to begin afresh rather than as an impediment to furthering the old policies that have backfired. His focus should be on bringing the Ukraine war to a quick and just end and rebuilding the economy. He should also drive a new, hard bargain with Russia for security and stability in Europe. Only a peaceful Europe can guarantee Germany’s continued rise as the continent’s economic and political engine.