​Doublespeak: on the Trump administration’s actions and India  

Weeks after calling off the visit of trade negotiators to Delhi, the U.S. administration says it has invited Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and the Indian trade team to Washington to resume talks for the India-U.S. FTA. The announcement came days after U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi signalled, through public comments and social media posts, a halt to tensions of the last four months. On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Mr. Trump’s Ambassador-designate to India Sergio Gor also said they expect ties to be smooth, a trade deal to be announced shortly, and a Quad Summit later this year. Despite the U.S.’s punitive actions against India on trade, visas, deportations, and Mr. Trump’s comments on Operation Sindoor, the ceasefire and his dealings with Pakistan, New Delhi has appeared prepared to move forward as well, with Mr. Goyal and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar confirming India’s active engagement with the U.S. However, other comments by the Trump administration on India’s import of Russian oil could throw a spanner in the works. Mr. Gor has said that stopping the imports by India remains the U.S.’s “top priority”, while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said that India has “got to stop” buying Russian oil for a U.S. trade deal. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Mr. Trump has personally asked the European Union to slap “100% sanctions” on India and China to make Russia stop the Ukraine conflict.

The U.S.’s doublespeak will disappoint many in government and industry circles who had expressed relief over the Modi-Trump détente, and the resumption of trade talks. At 50%, India and Brazil face the highest U.S. tariffs, and Indian textile exporters have begun to see orders being cancelled. According to the Chief Economic Adviser, V. Anantha Nageswaran, the tariffs could mean a loss of half a per cent from India’s GDP, and job losses will be a concern as well. In theory, the government could consider the U.S.’s demands on reducing Russian oil if they had not been served as an ultimatum. However, even if New Delhi was so inclined, Washington is making the choice much harder with its crudely worded diktats. While the Modi government did accept the U.S. demands to stop the imports of Iranian and Venezuelan oil earlier, repeating that in 2025 with Russia is more complex. While the costs of oil sanctions and high tariffs can be absorbed, the costs of caving in now and the resultant reputational damage may seem greater in the balance.