Today’s China is evidently not the China of Deng Xiaoping. With the advent of Xi Jinping in 2013, China has changed even more and there is little indication that it has since retracted from this path. On the other hand, it is harking more and more to its past, wallowing in self-pity as a ‘wronged’ civilisation. As this becomes more pronounced, the need for caution becomes self-evident, at least as far as countries on its borders are concerned. China’s border provocations, in the Himalayas for instance, can be traced to its determination to restore the Qing Dynasty frontiers, notwithstanding the evident weakness of these claims.
From skirmishes to some de-escalation
The border skirmishes with India in Depsang (2013), Demchok (2016), Doklam (2017), and Galwan (2020) serve to confirm this hypothesis. The warm sentiments exchanged between leaders of India and China recently, therefore, need to be taken with a great deal of circumspection. Much of the rest of the world, apart from India, has been surprised by the recent outburst of sentiments. Caution is, thus, well merited, and it would be highly optimistic to treat the present as denoting a return to the Hu Jintao period — in the first decade of the century — which was a brief interregnum when relations appeared to veer towards normalcy.
A thaw in relations could be discerned towards the latter part of 2024, involving a de-escalation of operations at friction points on the border. Official references to this were, however, made only just prior to the BRICS Summit in Kazan (Russia) in October 2024. Outlines of the India-China Border Patrolling Agreement, nevertheless, remained sketchy, though they did appear to signal a breakthrough. The Agreement, focusing primarily on patrolling arrangements between the two sides in the Himalayas, has since been invested with far greater significance than a mere Border Patrolling Agreement. A ‘degree of stand-off’, however, still prevails along the Line of Actual Control.
It was China that was first off the mark. In November 2024, the Chinese Defence Ministry observed that India and China were implementing a settlement reached between the two countries for disengagement and resumption of patrolling. Even before the process had been completed, a Chinese Defence Ministry Spokesman (during a media briefing), observed “we look forward to a harmonious dance between the Chinese Dragon and the Indian Elephant with concerted steps”.
In an interview with an American podcaster, Prime Minister Narendra Modi — who visited the United States in February 2025 — declared that normalcy had returned to the India-China border after his talks with President Xi Jinping in Kazan in October (2024), adding that “our cooperation is not only (mutually) beneficial, but also essential for global peace and prosperity”. Subsequent to this, there has been mention of the revival of the SR (Special Representatives) talks in the near future.
De-escalation of tensions on the border and putting in place new ‘patrolling arrangements’ are important, but fall well short of robust negotiating stages. Specifics are, however, important in dealing with such issues, all the more so in the case of a nation such as China. In a world that is no longer considered multipolar, and where pluralism is at a severe disadvantage, most experts veer to the view that ‘Might is again Right’. Also, that references to the ‘rules based international order’ have little meaning. Hence, the need for caution.
A reality check
Meanwhile, China, in March, announced that it is increasing its Defence Budget by 7.2% over that of the previous year. This is approximately three times higher than that of India, and should serve as a warning to India. India’s defence spending is currently believed to be less than 2% of its GDP, and the difference between a burgeoning Chinese Defence Budget and that of India’s is a matter of concern. India and China are not about, or expected, to go to war in the near future, but India should not also be inveigled into accepting China’s assertions and promises. The grim reality is that the People’s Liberation Army today maintains over a lakh of soldiers (along with tanks, howitzers, surface-to-air missiles and heavy weaponry), in the icy Himalayan heights of Ladakh. This apart, there are reports that China is stocking-up on its nuclear weaponry (and while all reports about nuclear warheads are at best speculative), Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and other reliable agencies suggest that in the recent past, Beijing has added another hundred nuclear warheads to its existing stockpile.
India should not be oblivious to the fact that while talking peace, China is strengthening its war-fighting capabilities (even though this may also be intended to withstand a U.S.-led attack). China’s lead in Artificial Intelligence (AI) today also gives it a decided advantage in the realm of ‘new age’ warfare. Simultaneously, China has taken the lead as far as military applications of cyber, apart from AI, are concerned, becoming adept at AI-enabled cyber-security operations.
China already maintains a lead over India in aspects such as anti-satellite capabilities and has made rapid advancements in battlefield digital technologies, real-time data processing, predictive analytics and automated decision support systems. China is also understood to have a decisive advantage in aspects such as quantum technology. Hence, much more than pious words will be needed to convince the world (India included) about China’s real intentions before the Elephant and the Dragon can dance together. India must, hence, exercise utmost vigil.
In the neighbourhood
Meanwhile, as a part of its current foreign policy initiatives, China has embarked on a quest for new friends in India’s ‘backyard’. India needs to be vigilant about this development. The latest is Bangladesh. After the eclipse of the Sheikh Hasina regime in Bangladesh, and a successful visit by Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser, Mohammed Yunus, to China in March, Bangladesh has now come directly on China’s radar, and is being viewed as a ‘good friend’.
This development, apart from being an aspect of deep concern, creates a new void on India’s eastern flank. What is also becoming evident is that even as India has been assiduously courting the U.S., it seems to be losing focus on strengthening and improving relations with countries in its immediate neighbourhood. This situation extends to West Asia and North Africa as well.
Again, if energy security remains the ‘Holy Grail’ for nations the world over, China appears to have stolen a march over India and many others, in the nuclear energy domain. It has been active in the African continent and has reportedly gained a beachhead there, in terms of nuclear energy resources, while other countries such as India (which are similarly hoping to increase their reliance on nuclear power) remain far behind. Irrespective of relations between India and China, nuclear energy will soon be an important component in the tussle for energy independence and influence. For now, China appears to have stolen a march over India with its successful foray into the African continent, even as their market is beginning to open up. Given the mounting intensity of great power competition, including between India and China, the scale and pace of China’s military modernisation, and China’s penchant for expanding its boundaries, India could well confront a difficult future, if it does not act in time and with necessary foresight.
Finally, in its shadow play with China, India must also be prepared for any and all eventualities. U.S. President Donald Trump, given his mercurial temperament, could well strike a deal with China — an eventuality that could upset and alter power equations across the globe. It might, hence, be prudent for India’s leaders and strategists to take note of such an eventuality, if not for now in the not too distant future, and prepare for this eventuality. India and China are old civilisations and have overcome many problems in the past. This may be one more eventuality that India’s leaders might have to anticipate and contend with even if it appears highly improbable at this point in time.
M.K. Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, a former National Security Adviser, and a former Governor of West Bengal
Published – April 10, 2025 12:16 am IST