​A gathering storm: On India’s diplomatic actions against Pakistan

The diplomatic actions against Pakistan taken on Wednesday (April 23, 2025) by India’s Cabinet Committee on Security in reaction to the Pahalgam terror attack are a measured set of responses that indicate a larger escalation could follow. The decisions such as to cancel visas given to Pakistani nationals, suspend consular operations, and to close the Attari border Integrated Check Post (ICP) carry New Delhi’s message that it does not wish to engage with Pakistan above the absolute minimum levels required. Some of these measures had followed previous attacks including Pulwama (2019). The decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance until Pakistan acts “credibly” against terror groups means that India will enforce its earlier decision to suspend all meetings of the Permanent Commission that oversees implementation of the treaty, end site visits by Pakistani water teams to India and continue with hydropower and desilting projects along the tributaries — measures to which Pakistan had raised objections. Pakistan’s response is an attempt to mirror Indian measures, without even trying to address the anguish in India. Nor does it indicate it is willing to track down the perpetrators, despite the fact that The Resistance Force (TRF), which claimed responsibility for the attack, is a front for the Pakistan-based LeT. Islamabad has also cancelled visas, cut mission strength and has shut down all trade. Pakistan has threatened to suspend other bilateral agreements including the practically defunct 1972 Simla Agreement, which had most notably converted the ceasefire line into the Line of Control and abjured third party mediation on Kashmir. It also suggested that India’s suspension of the IWT would be seen as an “Act of War” if it meant water flows to Pakistan are reduced, and threatened tit for tat strikes if India conducts military operations that harm Pakistani citizens.

All signs indicate the stage is being set for further escalation in tensions and a possible military standoff. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s message from a rally in Bihar is the threat of punishment “beyond imagination”. New Delhi is reaching out to countries around the world, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri is briefing foreign envoys, while senior Ministers have briefed Opposition leaders on the cross-border links. Given geopolitical currents, revulsion at such targeting of innocent tourists, and a broad understanding of India’s stand on the issue of cross-border terrorism, it is unlikely that other countries such as the U.S. will press New Delhi to restrain its next steps. The government must continue to take all stakeholders, especially the Jammu-Kashmir government into confidence. Pakistan could benefit from reconsidering its disadvantageous position, and even now, show that it is willing to work against terror groups, and avert the impending escalation.