President Donald Trump has invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Washington to sign a deal that would give Washington access to Ukraine’s rare earth mineral deposits, in exchange for the White House’s support in ending the three-year war there since the Russia invasion. While Mr. Trump has — to his domestic constituents — positioned the deal as favourable to the U.S., to help American taxpayers “get their money back” in the context of U.S. aid to Ukraine, he has also emphasised that responsibility for the security angle of the Ukraine situation would fall on Europe. Hinting at what appears to be a limited future U.S. commitment to and involvement with the conflict, the Trump administration has so far avoided providing any security guarantee to Ukraine that would accompany the minerals deal, even though Mr. Zelenskyy has said: “If we don’t get security guarantees, we won’t have a ceasefire, nothing will work, nothing.” Nevertheless, both sides are closing ranks on an agreement that revolves around a “Reconstruction Investment Fund”, towards which Ukraine would be required to contribute 50% of “all revenues earned from the future monetisation of all relevant Ukrainian Government-owned natural resource assets [… including] deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, and other infrastructure relevant to natural resource assets”. An early draft suggests that the fund will be managed by both countries, yet details on its governance and operation have not been hammered out yet.
On the one hand, the unambiguous positive outcome to hope for would be a robust ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv, followed by bilateral territorial and institutional agreements that ensure peace as a precursor to reconstruction and rehabilitation of the areas devastated by Russia. Yet, sceptics may wonder whether this deal tips more in favour of resource extraction by the U.S. rather than any broader peace-seeking efforts, especially because the EU, as a critical stakeholder to any denouement in Ukraine, has been left in the cold; and because the Trump White House appears to have discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin the possibility of Moscow working with U.S. companies to “mine rare earth mineral deposits in both Russia, and parts of Russian-occupied Ukraine”. There is nothing wrong with healthy competition and bilateral or multi-party deals for the extraction and sale of rare earth minerals, now a vital resource. However, when investment deals in this sector are used to blunt and deflect from strategic questions regarding Russian aggression and the large-scale violations of human rights, it becomes considerably harder to distinguish Mr. Trump’s plans for the region from an unapologetic neo-colonial agenda.
Published – February 28, 2025 12:10 am IST