​Carrot and stick: on the U.S. and Iran talks

The U.S. and Iran are currently engaged in rare high-stakes diplomacy. They have held two rounds of talks, in Muscat and in Rome, with Oman as the mediator, about Tehran’s nuclear programme. A third technical round has been confirmed for the coming days. However, tensions still remain high between the Trump administration and the Islamic Republic. It was Donald Trump, during his first term, who sabotaged a functioning multilateral agreement that had significantly curtailed Iran’s nuclear programme. Ever since, Iran has accelerated its nuclear activities. While it has not yet decided to build a nuclear bomb, most assessments agree that it has the capability to do so within weeks. At the same time, Iran’s regional influence stands diminished as a result of Israel’s attacks on its so-called axis of resistance and other regional shifts such as the fall of Syria’s Assad regime. Israel is pressing for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, but Mr. Trump, according to American reports, has vetoed those plans, for now.

Mr. Trump has adopted a classic carrot-and-stick approach. He said he wanted a deal with Iran but with a warning that if talks failed, there would be bombing. He has also launched a massive aerial campaign against Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis. In addition, the U.S. has ramped up its military presence in West Asia besides moving B-2 bombers to the Indian Ocean region — all aimed at signalling to Iran that U.S. threats should be taken seriously. But despite the combined military might of the U.S. and Israel, any attack on Iran would be catastrophic for regional security and global economy. Iran’s nuclear facilities are scattered and underground, making them extremely difficult to destroy. It was precisely because there was no viable military solution to the Iran nuclear issue that world powers chose the path of diplomacy in 2015, a path Mr. Trump had abandoned in 2018 for no good reason. Nevertheless, despite the challenges and geopolitical pressure, the recent initiation of talks by Mr. Trump and Iran opens a rare window of opportunity to resolve the issue once and for all. For diplomacy to succeed, the U.S. should act as a responsible global power that is committed to preventing weaponisation of Iran’s nuclear programme, rather than as a partisan patron seeking to destroy Iran on Israel’s behalf. Iran, for its part, has signalled that it was open to scaling back its nuclear activities in exchange for the removal of sanctions and threats. The 2015 agreement, which limited Iran’s enrichment capabilities and uranium stockpile, could serve as a reference point for a deal if talks progress constructively.