Dangerous turn: on Trump and the Ukraine war  

President Donald Trump’s announcement that he has ordered “two nuclear submarines to be positioned in appropriate regions”, in response to the “provocative statements” by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, marks a dangerous turn in the U.S.-Russia relationship which the Republican leader had pledged to repair in the run-up to his election late last year. Mr. Medvedev, now the Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, had said that Mr. Trump’s threats of imposing tariffs on Russia were “a step towards war”. Mr. Trump did not specify whether he has moved submarines capable of launching intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads, or nuclear-powered boats equipped with conventional weapons. In recent weeks, Mr. Trump has expressed growing frustration with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war. Initially, he gave Mr. Putin a 50-day deadline to end the war or face American tariffs. On July 29, this was shortened to 10 to 12 days. Mr. Trump has also threatened secondary “penalty” tariffs on countries that trade with Russia such as India and China.

Mr. Trump’s frustration is understandable. He pressured Ukraine into accepting a ceasefire proposal. His Defence Secretary publicly stated that Ukraine would not be taken into NATO. Yet, the most that he managed to extract from Mr. Putin was a limited truce in the Black Sea and a temporary pause in attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. At the heart of the impasse are the divergent views in western capitals and Moscow on how to end the war. While western leaders insist on an immediate ceasefire, Moscow believes that this should be part of a comprehensive peace agreement addressing its core security concerns, including NATO’s eastward expansion. Russia also finds little incentive to de-escalate at a time when its troops have strategic momentum. Ukraine has carried out deadly drone attacks on several Russian cities, but on the battlefield, is struggling to hold the line. Besides, Mr. Trump’s decision to bomb Iran on behalf of Israel, at a time when Tehran was technically in talks with the U.S., appears to have hardened Russia’s position. Nevertheless, diplomatic setbacks are not an excuse for nuclear sabre-rattling. The last thing the world wants today is a direct conflict between the U.S. and Russia. Instead of escalating the crisis, Mr. Trump must reflect on why America’s current approach — combining sanctions against Russia with military support for Ukraine — has failed to deter Mr. Putin. His initial turn towards diplomacy was a step in the right direction. He must stay the course and narrow the gap between the western and Russian positions on ending the war.