Different directions: on the AIADMK and the BJP  

Three months after their uneasy revival of electoral ties, the AIADMK and the BJP are yet to find common ground on the nature of government that would be formed in Tamil Nadu were the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to win next year’s Assembly elections. Union Home Minister and the BJP’s principal electoral strategist, Amit Shah, had unilaterally declared in April that a “coalition government” would be formed — a stance that he has reiterated multiple times — and that the BJP will be a part of such an arrangement. However, the AIADMK leader, Edappadi K. Palaniswami, who passively watched Mr. Shah make the announcement, has yet to endorse the idea. He has maintained that the AIADMK would secure an absolute majority on its own. In an interview with The Hindu, he has argued that the people of Tamil Nadu are averse to coalition governments and that the AIADMK would meet their expectations for single-party rule. Just days ago, he had declared, “we are not naive” to share power. He has clarified that the remark was made in response to the DMK’s “orchestrated campaign” that portrays the BJP as intent on “swallowing” up the AIADMK. He has also insisted that efforts to create discord between the BJP and the AIADMK would fail and that the alliance remains “cent per cent” intact.

Historically, Tamil Nadu, unlike the other southern States, has never had a coalition government. The DMK and the AIADMK have relied on allies for vote transfers and electoral victories but have avoided sharing power. In a State where regional parties have effectively curtailed the influence of national parties, voters remain wary of any perceived attempts by national parties to dominate regional parties. Against this backdrop, Mr. Palaniswami’s reluctance to endorse power-sharing ahead of the polls is understandable — there is no guarantee that he will maintain this stance later. He has also sent mixed signals. On one occasion, he did not directly rule out parting ways with the BJP were a more electorally viable ally — such as actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam — to emerge. But he knows that he cannot dictate terms to the BJP, whose backing for his leadership cannot be taken for granted. Mr. Shah has subtly reflected this uncertainty by shifting his phrasing — from saying that the NDA would fight the election under Mr. Palaniswami’s leadership to describing it as under the “AIADMK’s leadership”. Regardless of these evolving political dynamics, effective coordination between the cadres of both parties — essential for voter outreach — cannot be achieved when the leadership appears to be pulling in different directions. It is a recipe for confusion and chaos.