​Forced get-together: on the AIADMK-BJP alliance  

Union Home Minister Amit Shah displayed political urgency when he formalised the BJP’s reunion with the AIADMK, a year ahead of the Tamil Nadu Assembly election. A cautious Edappadi K. Palaniswami, the leader of the AIADMK, was also persuaded to endorse a pre-poll agreement to form a coalition government. Coming just days after the AIADMK’s Rajya Sabha MPs voted against the Waqf (Amendment) Bill, the move places the Dravidian party firmly in the NDA camp and severely restricts any leeway for it to take an independent line on issues of public interest. The newly stitched-up alliance could also lead to an electoral polarisation, narrowing the field for fence-sitters and marginal players who now have to choose between the fronts led by the DMK and the AIADMK to make any impact at all in the first-past-the-post system. Besides the electoral arithmetic, the BJP high command must have been conscious that time is needed to revive the chemistry between the two parties and to mount a cohesive campaign to dislodge the DMK. The BJP might also have been uneasy with the DMK’s growing national visibility, especially after its leader and Chief Minister M.K. Stalin launched the Joint Action Committee for Fair Delimitation with support from parties in seven States. Not surprisingly, Mr. Shah accused the DMK of raising the three-language policy, delimitation, and NEET exemption to divert attention from governance failures. But with the AIADMK’s stand on these issues not very different from the DMK’s, how these will be handled in a common minimum programme remains to be seen.

To dispel the perception that the BJP is exploiting a weakened AIADMK, Mr. Shah affirmed that the alliance would fight the elections under Mr. Palaniswami’s leadership. He also avoided pushing for any patch-up with splinter groups of the AIADMK saying such matters were internal affairs. The timing of the alliance announcement overshadowed the transition in the BJP’s State leadership — from K. Annamalai to Nainar Nagenthran — and Mr. Shah ensured that this did not appear as a concession to the AIADMK, which had strongly opposed Mr. Annamalai. But surely, the elevation of Mr. Nagenthran, a former AIADMK member, could smoothen relations. The NDA is likely to include the PMK and TMC (Moopanar); whether the AIADMK rebels, who joined hands with the BJP in the 2024 general election, will still find a place in the new alliance is unclear. The 2026 election is poised to be a two-way contest involving the DMK-led alliance and the NDA; the Naam Tamilar Katchi, with an 8% vote share, and actor Vijay’s newly formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam will likely bring up the rear. With Mr. Shah levelling corruption charges against the DMK, there is also the likelihood of central agencies being more active in the State. Although the alliance is sewn up, the NDA could find it challenging to finalise a seat-sharing formula that is acceptable to the many claimants.