Greying with grace: on the Sample Registration System Statistical Report

If there was any doubt about India going through the throes of a demographic change, confirmation came with the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report indicating a fall in the country’s Crude Birth Rate (CBR) and Total Fertility Rate. As per the SRS data for 2023, India’s CBR, defined as the number of annual live births in a population per 1,000 people, had declined to 18.4, a drop from 19.1 in 2022. The country’s TFR had also fallen to 1.9, after hovering at 2.0 in 2021 and 2022. The TFR indicates the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime to replace that generation, and a TFR of 2.1 births per woman is considered replacement-level fertility, translating to a stable population over time. Any figure over 2.1 suggests a growing population while rates below 2.1 signify a clear trend towards population decline and aging. Of course, as usual, for a country of this size and diversity, there were vast regional differences. The highest CBR was in Bihar at 25.8, and the lowest was in Tamil Nadu at 12. Bihar also reported the highest TFR (2.8) and Delhi, the lowest (1.2). Eighteen States and Union Territories had a TFR below the replacement level, and all States reporting higher than replacement level TFR were in northern India — Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. Following Delhi, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra too have a TFR below 2.0. Simultaneously, as expected from such a demographic shift, SRS data indicated the proportion of people above 60 rose by 0.7 percentage points in a year to 9.7% of the population. Kerala has the highest proportion of elderly population, at 15%, while Assam, Delhi and Jharkhand reported the lowest proportion of their population over 60 years.

It will be foolhardy to look away from the writing on the wall. As the most populous nation, home to over 1.46 billion people, the current declining trend will admittedly take several years to have an impact on the population. However, there is no doubt that the nation, having, at least theoretically, prepared for ‘more’ all these years, should now prepare for a different future, while continuing to leverage the demographic dividend it still possesses thanks to a relatively young workforce. A greying nation will come with its own attendant concerns and needs — financial, universal access for reduced mobility, physical and mental health-care facilities and social support services. A ‘young’ nation, after all, will require a massive realignment to be ready to serve the needs of a growing population of the elderly.