India’s foreign policy is currently facing an existential crisis. The second term of the Trump administration, which had previously been welcomed by India, has upset India’s carefully crafted foreign policy. The recent India-Pakistan conflict should also be viewed as a ‘wakeup call’. As details of the extent of China’s military connections to Pakistan and of equipment transfer tumble out, India must take notice.
Next to the China-Pakistan nexus in the region, it is India’s approach to events in West Asia and the Israel-Iran conflict that clearly need a relook. India has tried, not very successfully, to sit on the fence as far as the current Israel-Iran war is concerned, but it probably needs to think through what is best in its interest. The stakes have become higher with the United States involving itself directly in the Israel-Iran conflict, which saw it using, for the first time, its GBU-57 bunker buster bomb to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and another embedded nuclear site. Neutrality is no longer an option, and despite the announcement of a ceasefire, the possibility of an all-out war is a distinct possibility.
A term that is no longer taboo
With the use of the GBU-57 precision guided bombs, the conflict in West Asia has clearly attained a new dimension. The dreaded ‘N word’ is no longer taboo. Hence, the question that India needs to answer is whether it can continue to keep up its stance of neutrality. The situation is turning increasingly complex and it is no longer a mere wakeup call for India and countries across the globe. The threat has become all too real.
It may be too far-fetched to assert that a neutral India is ‘friendless’ in the world of today. A look at the state of affairs that concerns India would suggest, however, that this could well become the case — and that it could continue for quite some time in the future. India’s professed leadership of the Global South and its patronage of nations across West Asia brought it no dividends during the recent India-Pakistan conflict. Instead, India has since been reminded — if this was needed — that it confronts two hostile nuclear powers in its neighbourhood, both of whom would have no moral compunctions in utilising nuclear weapons, if the opportunity arose. Hence, India cannot, any longer, afford to believe that its current policies are bearing fruit. A correct reading of ‘the tea leaves’ as they exist at present is essential for India’s present and its future.
Donald Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) policies are today adversely impacting India at levels other than just trade and economics. The U.S. President’s claims to have effected a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, following the short India-Pakistan conflict in May — something that India contradicts, but which Pakistan’s ‘Maximum Leader’ Field Marshal Asim Munir, has publicly endorsed — sets India on a collision course with the U.S. President and his Administration. Mr. Trump’s lunch for Field Marshal Munir and the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose not to respond to Mr, Trump’s invitation to visit Washington (while returning from the G-7 meeting in Canada), is again likely to be played up by elements in the U.S. and across the world who favour Pakistan against India.
The Israel-Iran conflict is yet another situation in which India finds itself as an ‘outlier’. ‘Neutrality’, in the compelling circumstances of today, is out of sync with reality as also the situation on the ground. India’s tilt towards Israel in recent times, it would appear, has become something of an albatross around India’s neck. India’s Iran policy today has few takers beyond India’s borders. Its policy of maintaining an equidistance between Israel and Iran has proved to be of little use in so far as extolling the virtues of non-alignment are concerned.
Admittedly, we live in perilous times. Today’s situation does not seem to favour India’s long-held policy prescriptions. Israel’s premeditated attack on Iran’s nuclear sites — aided by the U.S. dropping bunker buster bombs — has seen little condemnation across the world. Iran, which needed a strong voice of support like that of India’s to counter the narrative of Israel, the U.S. and the West, will find little comfort in India’s ‘calls for restraint’ on all sides. India’s support and voice, based on its moral strength, would have mattered were it seen to support the victim of the attack, rather than maintain an equidistance between Israel and Iran.
It is true that in today’s world, it is fashionable to denigrate consensus in favour of ‘might’. For instance, at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in May, the emphasis seemed to be on the criticality of ‘hard power’ as against ‘soft power’, with dialogue taking a back seat. The stage was set by the U.S. Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth, who declared that a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’ was a sine qua non for peace in the region, and that China’s ‘calls for hegemony’ in Asia were untenable. He reminded the Singapore audience that ‘any unilateral attempt to change the status-quo in the South China Sea and the First Island Chain by force or coercion is unacceptable’. This disturbed the normally placid atmosphere seen at the Shangri-La Dialogue, and produced a strong repartee from the Chinese delegate present. Subsequently, a Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman warned that the ‘US must never play with fire on the Taiwan question’.
What India needs to do
Hence, it would be wise in the circumstances for India to prepare for future eventualities of every kind. To start with, there needs to be a detailed study of the growing China-Pakistan military connection as the India-Pakistan conflict in May this year has merely hit the ‘pause button’. More importantly, India must try and better understand how deeply China’s military capabilities have been meshed with those of Pakistan, the critical role being played today by Chinese weaponry in Pakistan’s defence plans, and how Pakistan has managed to integrate Chinese systems with its own defence plans and procedures, including its claims of being able to lock on to hostile targets to counter an attack. Additionally, India needs more details regarding the numbers of J-10Cs and JF-17 fighters in Pakistan’s inventory.
As a part of its preparations for a future conflict, India would also do well to examine whether it has the necessary wherewithal for conflicts of longer durations. The United Kingdom, for instance, recently undertook an in-depth study of its defence capabilities which helped highlight areas of critical weakness, including that of ammunition stockpiles, the need to set up a new National Armament System, and a new Cyber and Electromagnetic Command to oversee networks and electronic warfare. For India to prepare for a two front war, it should, apart from learning lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war, refine its policies on many such aspects as well. Undoubtedly, Artificial Intelligence (AI) will be a national priority. Aspects such as electro-magnetic manoeuvres to neutralise drones, loitering munitions and glide bombs that dominate the skies today in periods of conflict, should again have high priority.
China’s white paper
While India remains preoccupied with Pakistan, it would also do well to read the fine print in China’s recently published white paper on “National Security in the ‘New Era’”. This has a clear enunciation of Chinese strategic thinking today and mentions that ‘development and security are like two wings of one body’. The white paper reads like a ‘testament’ on the importance of maintaining scientific and technological security at all times, and the importance of ensuring maintainability of supply chains. It also has a mention of the situation prevalent in the areas neighbouring China, underscoring the fact that these pose threats to China’s borders.
To conclude, it might bear mentioning that if China intends to reinforce its strategic objectives in Asia, specially in South Asia, the criticality of its alliance with Pakistan to encircle India must not be underestimated. Also at a time, when the ‘N word’ is being openly bandied about, India must reckon with the fact that China has more than a 3:1 advantage over India in terms of deploying nuclear warheads, and an almost 5:1 advantage if the nuclear warheads of China and Pakistan are combined.
M.K. Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, a former National Security Adviser, and a former Governor of West Bengal
Published – July 01, 2025 12:16 am IST