Lessons from a quake: on the Myanmar earthquake  

Rescue operations are in full swing following the devastating 7.7-magnitude earthquake centred in Myanmar, which, according to official estimates, has claimed more than 1,600 lives. With the death toll rising from the hundreds to over a thousand in just 24 hours, and information continuing to trickle in, a significantly higher casualty count cannot be ruled out. The number of injured stands at around 3,400. The damage to infrastructure has been massive, with large sections of densely populated cities such as Mandalay and Naypyitaw left without electricity. Hospitals are overwhelmed, and people are camping in the streets, their homes reduced to rubble. Myanmar’s neighbours have responded swiftly, dispatching warships and aircraft loaded with relief materials and rescue personnel. India, China, and Thailand (casualties were reported after a skyscraper that was under construction in Bangkok collapsed despite being over 1,000 kilometres from the epicentre) are among the countries that have sent aid. Indian military aircraft made multiple sorties into Myanmar over the weekend, ferrying supplies and search-and-rescue crews to Naypyitaw, the capital, parts of which were devastated by the quake. Several Chinese rescue teams have also arrived, including one that crossed overland from Yunnan province, according to China’s embassy in Myanmar.

Myanmar lies in a seismically active region at the convergence of four tectonic plates — the Eurasian, Indian, Sunda, and Burma microplate. The constant shifting and collision of these plates are responsible for most earthquakes in the region. Quakes of the magnitude witnessed on Friday are not uncommon; the Sagaing Fault, which is one of Myanmar’s most active, has produced six to eight earthquakes of similar intensity since 1900, according to the United States Geological Survey. The Myanmar quake brings back memories of the 7.8 magnitude quake in Türkiye and Syria, in 2023, that killed at least 55,000. While accurately predicting the timing, location, and intensity of earthquakes remains beyond current scientific capability, probabilities can be estimated, and it is possible to strengthen existing infrastructure to withstand seismic events. Myanmar’s political instability since the coup in 2021 has diverted attention from essential governance issues such as enforcing building codes. While the current damage is irreversible and recovery will take months, the existing ceasefire offers an opportunity to push for political stability. This can foster investment, attract expertise, and ensure better regulatory enforcement — critical steps in protecting the country against future disasters.