Liberal rally: on the Canadian election result

When Justin Trudeau resigned as the Prime Minister of Canada in January, it seemed that his party, the Liberals, who were trailing the Conservatives by 25 points in opinion polls, was headed for an electoral debacle. Mr. Trudeau, in power for nearly a decade, had become highly unpopular amid economic woes. Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, built his campaign on a call for change, branding the three consecutive terms of the Liberal party as “the lost decade” for Canada. Yet, in a stunning political turnaround, the Liberal Party beat the Conservatives in the April 28 national election. Two pivotal developments between Mr. Trudeau’s exit and the elections reshaped the country’s political landscape. First, Mark Carney, an economist and former banker, was chosen as Mr. Trudeau’s successor. Mr. Carney distanced himself from Mr. Trudeau’s legacy and reframed the election as an opportunity to rebuild Canada’s economy. Second, Donald Trump’s rhetoric about making Canada “the 51st State” of the U.S. galvanised Canadian nationalism and offered a new purpose and perspective to Mr. Carney’s electoral battle. He presented himself as the best candidate equipped to stand up to Mr. Trump’s threats and tariffs. His record as a successful central banker who led Canada through the 2008-09 recession and the U.K. through the chaotic Brexit years also helped his cause.

The results were not entirely disappointing for the Conservatives. According to the preliminary figures, the party won 41.4% of the vote, surpassing its 2011 majority with 39.6% votes. But what happened this time was a more unified consolidation of progressive and liberal votes favouring the Liberals. When Mr. Poilievre talked about a crackdown on fentanyl, opposed tax hikes and threatened to withhold federal funding for universities, non-conservative voters saw these as Trump-style rhetoric, and gravitated towards the Liberal Party. The New Democratic Party, led by Jagmeet Singh, saw its vote share plummet from 18% in 2021 to just 6%, while the Liberals surged from 32.6% to 43.5%. While Mr. Carney deserves credit for the turnaround, he should prepare the country for the path ahead. Despite the Liberals’ surging popularity, they are still projected to fall short of the 172-seat majority mark in the 343-member Parliament. A coalition government dependent on smaller parties could complicate his legislative ambitions. Moreover, Mr. Carney and Mr. Trump agree that the traditional relationship between Canada and the U.S. is over, which means the leaders will have to launch talks for a new economic and security framework. Mr. Carney must also take swift measures to offset the impact of the Trump tariffs and revitalise economic growth, all the while standing firm against American pressure and for Canada’s sovereignty.