​Monsoon woes: on the southwest monsoon and the northeast

The southwest monsoon has made a torrential entry and, expectedly, has wreaked considerable havoc. While the monsoon’s advent from Kerala, and its subsequent journey northwards, is a cause for celebration, given its association with the economy, this is only one branch of the monsoon — the Arabian Sea branch. A day or two after its onset over Kerala, and sometimes simultaneously, the Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon makes its way from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and enters the northeastern States first before bringing in rains to the eastern States. Frequently, however, this eastern onset is accompanied by destruction from floods and landslides. This year has been one such instance.

In Assam, 10 major rivers were flowing above their danger-level mark and in all, more than three lakh people across 19 districts of Assam have been affected in a wave of floods that has disrupted everyday lives. Tripura also witnessed heavy to very heavy rainfall across many districts over the weekend and is expected to receive an extremely heavy downpour for most of the week. The death toll in rain-induced landslides, floods, flash floods, and lightning across the northeastern region was 30 until May 29 and on a single day, May 31, 22 people had lost their lives according to official estimates. In North Sikkim, landslides have marooned about 1,500 tourists with arterial roads getting blocked from incessant rains. A bus plunged into the swollen Teesta river, killing at least two people, with the rest of the passengers missing. This is only June and history has it that with the monsoon expected to be ‘above normal’, it would not be a stretch to expect a spate of disasters. To be sure, the India Meteorological Department expects that the northeastern States will likely get less than their normal quota of rain, but the base level of monsoon rains in these States is higher than many States in India. This is a reason why extremely heavy rain and associated damage are a hard-wired feature of the monsoon in the northeastern States, even in a year of relative scarcity. The northeastern States also experience a smaller monsoon, between October to December, and thus it becomes all the more essential to craft a plan that accounts for the region’s year-long vulnerability. Historically, infrastructure development in these States has not kept pace with the rest of the country. While challenging geographical conditions are a major reason for this, there needs to be a systematic review involving all the affected States and the Centre to evaluate a sustainable long-term plan to reduce fatalities and the widespread destruction annually.