​New beginning: On Syria’s present and future

Until six months ago, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani was a specially designated global terrorist, with a $10 million bounty fixed on his head by the U.S. government. A native of Syria’s Golan Heights and a former member of al-Qaeda in Iraq, one of the group’s most brutal branches, Jolani founded Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda’s Syria affiliate, in 2012, during the early stages of the civil war. Thirteen years later, on May 14, Jolani — now known as Ahmed al-Sharaa — met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Riyadh. Mr. Trump, who earlier in the week lifted America’s decades-long sanctions on Syria, praised Mr. Sharaa, saying he was “a tough guy. Strong past… Fighter”. The meeting was a diplomatic victory for Mr. Sharaa, whose Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) captured Damascus in December 2024 by toppling the secular dictatorship of President Bashar al-Assad. Mr. Sharaa met Qatar’s Emir in Doha in April, seeking support for his fledgling Islamist regime. He enjoys the strong backing of Türkiye. He was welcomed by French President Emmanuel Macron earlier this month at the Élysée Palace in Paris. And in Riyadh, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman played a key role in facilitating his meeting with Mr. Trump. With regional and international recognition, Ahmed al-Sharaa appears poised to shape Syria’s present and future.

The lifting of American sanctions opens the door for Syria to join the global economic mainstream and attract foreign investments. Mr. Sharaa has already invited American companies to invest in Syria’s oil and gas. Money could flow from wealthy Arab monarchies to war-torn Syria for reconstruction and other business opportunities. But one question remains: what kind of Syria are Mr. Sharaa and his fellow Islamists planning to build? Mr. Sharaa has promised to uphold the rule of law, respect women’s rights and protect religious and ethnic minorities. Yet, ever since the HTS captured power, Syria has seen instances of targeted violence against minority communities. In March, hundreds of Alawites, the sect to which ousted President Assad belongs, were killed by Islamist gunmen in the coastal Latakia region. Sectarian tensions remain high in central Syria, where targeted killings and abductions are frequently reported. In recent weeks, Syria’s Druze minority has come under sustained attacks, with community leaders describing the violence as a “genocidal campaign”. The Kurds in the northeast have called for a decentralised, democratic Syria, firmly opposing the HTS’s centralised style of governance. The removal of sanctions and international recognition present a historic opportunity for Mr. Sharaa to steer Syria toward recovery and prosperity. But to that end, he must first stabilise the country internally, dismantle extremist armed groups and adopt an inclusive constitution that guarantees the rights of all citizens. If not, Syria risks following the path of Libya or Afghanistan.