​Opening moves: on politics, the Opposition space, the INDIA bloc

As political parties are repositioning themselves in response to changed circumstances, a realignment of politics appears to be underway, nearly a year after the general election in 2024. The non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) parties, that assembled as a putative national opposition under the INDIA banner, do not have a shared goal now. In fact, the Assembly elections in Bihar in late 2025, and in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala in early 2026 will scatter these parties further, and possibly pave the way for a reconfiguration of politics in these States and beyond. Some indicators are clear. Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader Prakash Karat said recently that INDIA was meant only for the Lok Sabha election and was specific to particular States. The Left and the Congress will face off in Kerala in what is going to be one of their most combative contests ever. In West Bengal, the Left and the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) cannot form an alliance while the Congress will weigh its options between the two. In Tamil Nadu, the Left and the Congress could both be in the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s tent, but that is not a certainty yet. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress, that revived their old rivalries amid heightened bitterness during the Delhi Assembly election recently, are set to continue their clash in Punjab, Gujarat and Goa.

The marginal gains of these parties had the aggregate impact of pushing the BJP to the brink of defeat in the general election but it was more happenstance than a new trend as developments in the following months have shown. Insurmountable contradictions in the calculations of individual non-BJP parties soon made INDIA dysfunctional, though the parties coordinate their parliamentary strategy to some extent. These parties are united in demanding more transparency in the electoral process and the accountability of the Election Commission of India. The BJP, meanwhile, has acted with alacrity to shore up its base and win the Assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi. The BJP and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam are also showing signs of a thaw in their relationship after having been routed in the general election that they fought separately in Tamil Nadu. Emerging conversations around questions of education and language policy and delimitation are generating a fresh political churn. The regional parties are facing a crisis in parts of the country, and the eclipse of some of them looks increasingly possible. But a lot more churn is likely before political alliances have a settled look.