​Polarised Poland: On politics, the Presidential election results

When Donald Tusk’s diverse coalition came to power in Poland in 2023, ending the eight-year rule of the right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS), the veteran centrist promised “to chase away the darkness”. Two years on, with the Tusk government still struggling to deliver on key reforms, Polish voters have elected a conservative backed by PiS as the country’s next President. Karol Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian and former boxer with little political experience, won the June 1 presidential run-off with 50.89% votes, narrowly defeating the liberal Mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, who secured 49.11%. Mr. Nawrocki, endorsed by Donald Trump and his MAGA movement, presented himself as an outsider populist, and promised a ‘Poland first’ approach that echoed Trumpian rhetoric. During its rule (2015–23), the PiS had implemented sweeping reforms that were aimed at tightening its control over state institutions and media, and recasting the Polish society along its ideological lines. It curbed abortion rights, overhauled education and filled the judiciary with party loyalists, often clashing with the European Union. Mr. Tusk attempted to roll back some of these measures, but met with strong opposition from the outgoing President, Andrzej Duda, also a PiS ally. As legislative logjam derailed Mr. Tusk’s reform agenda, Mr. Nawrocki capitalised on public resentment, attacking the Polish establishment and Brussels.

While Poland’s presidency is largely ceremonial, Mr. Nawrocki’s victory could significantly impact its politics. First, the President can veto laws passed by Parliament or send them to the constitutional court, now packed with judges appointed by the PiS government. In a post-election rally, Mr. Nawrocki said the Tusk government was trying to achieve a “monopoly” of power and vowed to prevent it, in a sign of what is to come. As the government does not have the three-fifths majority in Parliament to override presidential vetoes, Mr. Tusk could face further gridlock. Second, Mr. Nawrocki’s victory is a morale boost for Poland’s Eurosceptic right and may strengthen the alliance between the populist movements across the Atlantic. Despite his campaign rhetoric to oppose Ukraine joining NATO, he is unlikely to change Poland’s foreign policy core — be it its political and security alliance with the West or its opposition to Russia. But on social and economic policies, he is likely to follow the PiS’s right-wing conservatism. Third, the election result could exacerbate internal tensions within Mr. Tusk’s ideologically broad coalition which threaten to reduce Mr. Tusk to being a lame duck Prime Minister. All this points to a turbulent phase for Poland, where a politically polarised and socially divided nation braces for a prolonged tug of war between the pro-European centrists and ascendant populist conservatives.