Progress should not just be fast but future-proof

As climate change accelerates, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe. Representational file image.
| Photo Credit: SUDHAKARA JAIN

India’s climate future is not written in the stars — it is written in the rising temperatures, erratic monsoons, and intensifying disasters. The question is: what are we doing about it? The World Bank states that more than 80% of India’s population lives in districts at risk of climate-induced disasters. From unrelenting monsoon floods in the north-east to heat-induced crop failures in central India, these events are no longer isolated incidents — they are systemic threats to economic stability, public health, and national security. Yet, despite mounting evidence, India remains vulnerable due to gaps in risk assessment and preparedness. The lack of a comprehensive framework to evaluate and predict climate physical risks (CPRs) means that adaptation strategies are reactive rather than proactive.

Growing climate physical risks

As climate change accelerates, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe. CPRs extend beyond natural disasters, encompassing acute shocks, such as floods and heatwaves, and chronic stresses, such as shifting monsoon patterns and prolonged droughts. While disaster early warning systems and weather forecasts help mitigate immediate losses, CPRs require a long-term approach. Unlike short-term weather forecasts, climate projections analyse long-term trends, enabling policymakers to prepare for evolving climate hazards.

Global climate action is caught between prevention and cure — mitigation, which reduces emissions, and adaptation, which prepares for its inevitable impacts. While adaptation has long been considered a priority for the Global South, wildfires, heatwaves, and cyclones now also test the resilience of the Global North, making it clear that adaptation is a universal necessity. Yet, funding remains skewed towards mitigation, with most resources directed towards renewable energy and decarbonisation over adaptation measures like resilient infrastructure. However, investing in adaptation is not just about survival but also economically prudent. The UN Environment Programme estimates that every $1 invested in adaptation yields a $4 return through reduced economic losses and lower disaster recovery costs.

CPRs are not just about extreme weather events but also about how exposed and vulnerable communities, businesses, and infrastructure are to them. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a clear framework: the expected value of CPR is a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Hazards include floods, cyclones, and heatwaves. Exposure determines who and what is at risk. Vulnerability reflects a system’s ability to withstand and recover. Together, these define the true scale of climate risk.

To safeguard financial stability, regulatory bodies worldwide are shifting from voluntary climate risk disclosures to mandatory reporting. In India, the Reserve Bank of India is integrating climate risks into its regulatory framework, while the IFRS ISSB S2 sets global standards for disclosing CPRs underscoring that assessing these risks is now central to business continuity, not just environmental responsibility.

Despite the urgency, India’s approach to CPR assessments remains fragmented. While countries such as the U.S., U.K., and New Zealand have national frameworks that directly inform policy and finance, India’s efforts are dispersed across government agencies, research institutions, and private platforms, each using different methodologies and hazards of focus. Although India has studies such as flood maps from IIT Gandhinagar, vulnerability atlases from the India Meteorological Department, and disaster frameworks from the National Institute of Disaster Management, there is no unified system to consolidate these insights. Reliable CPR projections are further hindered by the limitations of global climate models such as Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, which fail to capture India’s hyper-local climate realities. Without a central repository for standardised climate risk data, businesses and government agencies struggle to make informed decisions.

Steps taken to fill the gaps

Recognising these gaps, India has initiated steps towards factoring in climate hazards in its National Adaptation Plan (NAP) in line with Article 7 of the Paris Agreement, which mandates all nations to establish NAPs by 2025 and show progress by 2030. To facilitate this, India formulated an Adaptation Communication and submitted its first report in 2023. A more comprehensive NAP report is underway, covering nine thematic sectors with district-level granularity.

While this is a great start, India must go further by building a CPR assessment tool that supports both public and private decision-making. This will enable the public sector to design climate-resilient policies, guide infrastructure planning, and allocate resources effectively. It will also play a crucial role for the private sector in assessing risks across value chains, supporting operational and expansion planning, and meeting growing investor expectations. Therefore, a India-specific tool that combines localised climate modelling, granular risk assessment, a centralised climate risk data hub, and transparent, science-based methods with iterative feedback mechanisms is imperative. As India charts its path towards Viksit Bharat, robust climate risk assessments will ensure that progress isn’t just fast, but future-proof.