To what extent can a leader of a country unintentionally sway the election of another G-7 nation? The answer: quite a bit, and surprisingly so, if the leader is Donald Trump.
On April 28, Canadians cast their ballots in crucial snap federal elections. A few months ago, under Justin Trudeau’s leadership, the ruling Liberal Party appeared doomed to lose. However, it experienced an incredible fairy-tale-like reversal in its electoral fortunes.
There was a great deal of apprehension around Mr. Trudeau’s resignation as Prime Minister in early January. Mr. Trump’s bullying of Mr. Trudeau, and Mr. Trump’s sweeping tariffs and his threats of annexation to make Canada the “cherished 51st state” of the U.S. were the catalysts. Canadians did not like them. Many Canadian coffee shops began rebranding “Americano” as “Canadiano” in what could be an example of the outburst of Canadian nationalism.
The contestants
Canada’s Conservative Party and its leader, Pierre Poilievre, are believed to share ideological similarities with Mr. Trump and his Republican Party. In a survey by Nanos in mid-January, the Liberals trailed the Conservative Party by 47% to 20%, and the Conservatives were predicted to get one of the largest parliamentary majorities in decades. However, in one of the most dramatic swings in contemporary world history, such a massive 20-plus point lead disappeared in roughly 14 weeks, with the ruling Liberals getting a 2.4% more vote share in the actual election.
Having served as the Governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013 and having helped Canada get through the 2008 financial crisis, and later as the Governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020 and managing the economic fallout from Brexit therein, Mark Carney has a reputation for managing crises. He was elected leader of the Liberal Party and succeeded Mr. Trudeau as Prime Minister. Observing a rapidly changing national mood prompted by Mr. Trump’s aggression, Mr. Carney decided, just nine days in office, that a snap federal election was his best bet.
Perhaps, unintentionally, Mr. Trump had “hijacked” Canada’s election. And Mr. Carney handled this election as though it was a referendum on Canada’s sovereignty. The election essentially turned out to be about who was going to protect Canada from the madman south of their border.
Mr. Carney was haunted by Mr. Trudeau’s ghost, nevertheless. The Conservatives claimed that he was “just like Justin” Trudeau and blamed him for Mr. Trudeau’s shortcomings. Nonetheless, it appears that Mr. Carney was able to shed the burden of the Trudeau baggage. “I am a very different person than Justin Trudeau,” Mr. Carney stated. And a new leadership certainly helped the Liberals, as it often happens.
Mr. Poilievre was on the verge of becoming the next Prime Minister just a few months ago, but his party went into disarray due to a dramatic shift in popular sentiment brought on by the spectre of MAGA (Make America Great Again) and Mr. Trump. Mr. Poilievre has been compared to Mr. Trump and condemned for his populist political style. Chrystia Freeland, a Liberal leader, referred to him as “maple syrup MAGA”. The Liberals have highlighted general parallels between the speeches of Mr. Trump and Mr. Poilievre as a scathing indictment of the Conservative leader. And it worked politically — Mr. Poilievre lost his seat.
Mr. Poilievre has attempted to distance himself from Mr. Trump in light of the altered situation. Mr. Trump has said that Mr. Poilievre is not “MAGA enough”. Unfortunately, the mighty don failed to reverse the “Trump effect” in the Canadian elections.
Voter consolidation
The Liberals won but narrowly missed an absolute majority in Canada’s 343-member House of Commons. However, there is no denying that the Conservatives under Mr. Poilievre did remarkably well to get 143 seats and a 41.3% vote share. The real loser in this election may be the Jagmeet Singh-led New Democratic Party (he has now resigned), a far-left socialist party, whose vote share decreased to 6.3% from 17.8%. Also, the Green Party strategically decided not to run candidates everywhere. Thus, there was a left-wing voter consolidation towards the Liberals, as Mr. Carney could successfully portray himself as the protector of Canadian nationalism.
Overall, there has been a strange ideological role reversal. Although Mr. Carney is not a populist, he used nationalist clichés more frequently to support liberal democracy. In Canada today, conservatives advocate economic pragmatism, while liberals wave the flag and invoke sovereignty. According to Althea Gagnon, a University of Toronto professor, “It’s 1984 – but in reverse”.
A similar Trump effect was also evident in the election in Australia this month. However, Mr. Trump and the Republicans might have a consolation prize from the Canadian election. With the primary agenda of opposing Mr. Trump, Canada behaved like America’s 51st State — a Democrat-leaning State, though. Thus, it is possible that this election may even force Mr. Trump and MAGA supporters to abandon their plans to annex Canada, as it might swing the balance of power against the Republicans in the hypothetically revised American map.
Ties with New Delhi
How will the Canadian election result impact the India-Canada relationship? In September 2023, then-Prime Minister Mr. Trudeau openly accused India of its involvement in the killing of a Canadian-Sikh citizen on Canadian soil, — which India strongly rejected — leading to a diplomatic rift between the two countries. Will a new leader with a different outlook be able to bring about a reset now?
On the election trail, Mr. Carney and Mr. Poilievre indicated a desire to put the Trudeau-era cold shoulder behind them and strengthen ties with India. It, however, might necessitate a difficult confrontation with the past, which is beyond simple diplomatic courtesy.
Atanu Biswas is Professor of Statistics, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata
Published – May 07, 2025 12:08 am IST