Steep decline: On the Index of Industrial Production

India’s factory output performance measured monthly by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and released by the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MoSPI) slowed to an eight-month low of 2.7% in April, at the start of fiscal 2026. It also marked a steep decline, almost halving from last April’s 5.2% growth. This correlates with the monthly gauge of the eight core sectors by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, which posted a 0.5% growth in April, also an eight-month low. More significantly, it is a steep decline from last April’s 6.9%. The eight core sectors make up about 40% of the weight of items included in the IIP. This comes on the back of a 4% growth in industrial output for the last fiscal, which was the lowest in the past four years. Of particular concern is the contraction in mining by 0.2%, the first since August 2024. While the absolute value of mining exports has risen in the past decade from $25 billion in FY15 to $42 billion in FY25, its share in exports has fallen from 8.1% to 5.1%. This still constitutes a not-so-insignificant share in India’s overall goods exports at a time of great trade volatility. However, both manufacturing and power production also slowed to 3.4% (4.2%) and 1.1% (10.2%), respectively, in April.

While trade and tariff-related uncertainties are most likely to have impacted goods output, the continuing contraction in consumer non-durables’ output for the third consecutive month suggests persistently low rural consumption, as essentials such as food make up a significant portion of consumer non-durables. This is a clear indication that despite retail inflation hitting an almost 6-year low at 3.16% in April, it has not translated into higher spending power for rural communities, where consumer non-durables have the most demand. Food prices contracted for the sixth straight month to 2.14%, which led to below MSP rates for most staples at mandis. The government must focus on raising rural incomes by implementing MSPs for farm produce more systematically. This would aid in increasing rural consumption. However, a surge in capital goods output to 20.3% in April, albeit from a low base, indicates confidence in the domestic economy as investors continue with their plans to diversify exports, attempting to rely less on the U.S. With trade-related sectors expected to continue to stay volatile in the near-term, the Centre must push the private sector to increase capital expenditure at home. This will increase incomes, and aid in raising consumption demand. Export-oriented sectors must also aim to ring-fence themselves from tariff, price and supply chain shocks by ensuring a robust domestic presence, while also diversifying outside the traditional export regions of the U.S. and the EU.