​Unmistakable shift: on SCO Summit and Indian foreign policy 

More than the outcomes, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to visit China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit was a clear message from the government on a shift in its foreign policy outlook. It has been seven years since Mr. Modi had travelled to China, and his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping was their first such bilateral engagement since the military standoff of 2020. It has been three years since Mr. Modi attended the SCO summit, a Eurasian grouping seen as decidedly anti-western. Meanwhile, photographs of the bonhomie between Mr. Modi, Mr. Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin evoked memories of an inactive Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral. The bilateral meeting with China saw the two leaders give their approval to the normalisation process initiated in October 2024, leading from troop disengagement along the LAC. The two sides agreed to fast-track the boundary resolution process being discussed by their Special Representatives. They also gave the green light for the resumption of direct flights, visa facilitation, and the building of economic ties to “stabilize world trade”. As Mr. Modi committed to “taking forward ties …based on mutual trust, respect and sensitivity”, Mr. Xi called for the “Dragon (China) and the Elephant (India) to come together”. Such bonhomie was unthinkable even a year ago, and it is clear that it has been driven, in some measure, by the U.S. moves to impose tariffs and sanctions on India, and New Delhi’s sense of mistrust about the Trump administration’s intentions. This allowed Mr. Modi and his delegation, for the moment, to side-step some of the concerns India has had over China’s actions, including its support to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, the blocking of Indian moves on UNSC reforms and NSG membership, and holds on designating Pakistan-based terrorists.

It was significant that the Tianjin declaration included strong language against the “cross-border movement of terrorists”, albeit condemning the Pahalgam attack and attacks in Balochistan against Pakistani forces, in equal measure. The declaration also saw the entire SCO membership find common ground on contentious issues such as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and condemnation of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, although India maintained its opposition to the paragraph supporting China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Mr. Xi’s plans for an SCO Development Bank, and Mr. Modi’s suggestion of initiating a “Civilisational Dialogue” between SCO members found mention. While the outcomes and the optics made for what Mr. Modi described as a “productive” visit to China, his itinerary missed some opportunities for closer engagement with leaders from India’s neighbourhood and the Global South, as he skipped the “SCO Plus” Summit.