​War and talks: on Russia and Ukraine

The Russia-Ukraine war has entered a new phase, marked by intensified military attacks and direct negotiations. On Sunday, on the eve of the second round of talks, Ukraine carried out its most daring drone attack deep inside Russia, targeting military airfields. According to Ukrainian intelligence officials, the drones, which were transported by trucks into Russia and launched remotely, resulted in “the destruction” of dozens of strategic bombers. While these claims have not been independently verified, Russia’s Ministry of Defence confirmed that five of its airfields came under attack, and aircraft at two stations, one close to the Norwegian border and the other in Siberia, “caught fire”. That Ukraine managed to carry out such an attack is a morale booster for its troops and a tactical setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Prior to Kyiv’s attack, Russia had launched an avalanche of drones and missiles across Ukraine, significantly straining the country’s air defences. It included a missile strike at a military training base on Sunday, killing at least 12 Ukrainian soldiers. But a silver lining amid the intensifying military exchanges was that Russia and Ukraine went ahead with the planned direct talks in Istanbul on Monday. In the hour-long meeting, negotiators agreed to a prisoner exchange deal, and scheduled a third round of talks later in June.

Forty months into the war, the signs of exhaustion are evident on both sides. Ukraine, faced with battlefield challenges, is trying to offset its vulnerabilities by staging innovative drone attacks to make the Kremlin feel the pain of the war. Kyiv has not had any major territorial victory in its lost territories since the Kherson offensive of late 2022. Over the past year, Ukraine has lost nearly 5,000 sq. km of its territory to the Russians. Russia has recaptured the land Ukraine had seized in Kursk. Russia’s spring offensive is now gaining momentum, with territorial advances in the Sumy region, while Ukraine is grappling with weakened air defences, an acute manpower crisis and uncertainty about continued U.S. support under President Donald Trump. Russia has found it increasingly difficult to prevent Ukraine’s drone attacks targeting its energy infrastructure, the Black Sea fleet and now airfields hosting strategic bombers. If Russia has battlefield momentum, Ukraine stays defiant. If the war continues to drag on, the toll on both sides will only deepen. So far, efforts by Mr. Trump to broker peace have yielded little progress. But he should not give up. Russia has long-standing grievances and future security concerns that must be addressed. Ukraine wants credible security guarantees that shield it from future attacks. The U.S. has a crucial role to play in narrowing these differences and working toward a durable ceasefire.